Description: 1997 Valuation Actuary Symposium, Session 3 looks at considerations in strengthening reserves as a result of cash flow testing results.

Description: This paper examines the pricing of catastrophe risk bonds. Catastrophe risk cannot be hedged by traditional securities. Therefore the pricing of catastrophe risk bonds requires an incomplete markets setting and this creates special difficulties in the pricing methodology. The paper briefly discusses the theory of equilibrium pricing and its relationship to the standard arbitrage-free valuation framework. Equilibrium pricing theory is used to develop a pricing method based on a model of the term structure of interest rates and a probability structure for the catastrophe risk. This pricing methodology can be used to assess the default spread on catastrophe risk bonds relative to traditional defaultable securities.

Description: Panelists at this session at the SOA 1998 Maui I Spring Meeting present methods and models for determining policyholder behavior with respect to lapses and interest rates in order to value liabilities and embedded options in life and annuity products.

Description: The Product Development Section, the Financial Reporting Section, the Modeling Section and the Committee on Life Insurance Research are pleased to present new research on modeling and forecasting cause-of-death mortality. Authored by a Milliman team led by Alexandre Boumezoued, the report develops a framework for forecasting cause specific death rates. Included also is a Cause of Deaths Forecasting Tool and a user guide for the tool.

Description: This paper presents a policy-year model for GAAP valuation of reinsurance accepted on the coinsurance and modified coinsurance bases. Also presented are the interrelationships between the model's methodology and statutory accounting procedures, a discussion of experience-refunding situations, and a demonstration of the model's ability to yield GAAP profits as a level percentage of premium. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1981, Vol. 33.

Description: 2002 Valuation Actuary Symposium, Lake Buena Vista, FL. In this teaching session the instructor explained how to scrutinize model results and use models to make strategic decisions. Specific topics included validation of asset models, modeling considerations for derivatives and assets with embedded options, using models to assist with portfolio management, and using models to improve portfolio yields and realized product spreads.

Description: Describes purpose of ARCH and editorial policy.

Description: Life and annuity markets around the world have seen increasingly complex investment-combined products, including universal life, fixed indexed annuities, variable annuities with a wide variety of guaranteed benefits and indexed variable annuities. Insurance companies are facing unprecedented exposure to financial risks in addition to traditional mortality and longevity risks. The risk assessment and modeling for such complex designs by conventional methods often focus heavily on their market competitiveness and profitability. However, there seems to be a lack of quantifiable and systematic approaches to assess investment risks associated with investment combined products. The objective of the proposed work is to develop a framework for quantifying and analyzing various forms of contractual designs and showcase different techniques to assess the trade-off between competitive contractual designs and their practical implications regarding the difficulty of risk management.

Description: 1994 SOA Spring Meeting, Orlando. In this session the panelists debated the diversity of professional practice about how companies and regulators can and should measure profit and set standards for profit margins. One panelist spoke of the traditional actuarial perspective, while the other represented the modern theory of finance.

Description: These files shows the Schelling Segregation model. It accompanies the report Complexity Science - an introduction and invitation for actuaries, and supports the material in Chapter six: Cellular automata.